November 2012

By Kasson

 

Poll Closing Times:

 

6pm (EST): 
Indiana (11), Expected to go to Romney, would not be killer to Romney if it goes Obama.

 

7pm (EST):

Florida (29), Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Florida is a MUST win for Romney. Virginia Going for Romney makes his path easier. New Hampshire is up for grabs but unlikely going to decide the election.

 

7:30pm (EST): 

Ohio(18), The most important race in the election. It gets much tougher for the loser of this state.

 

8pm (EST): 

Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Both are likely Obama, but if Romney can win one or both, Obama will have a long election night.
Once these polls have come in the night should be much clearer. Though some states may be too close to call well into the night or even further.

 

9pm (EST):
Wisconsin (17), Colorado (9), Almost every scenario for Romney Winning, has him winning Colorado. Wisconsin is Likely Obama, but one potential stretch goal for Romney.

 

10pm (EST):
Iowa (6), Nevada (6), These swing states are smaller but probably critical for Romney to win.

 

By this point in the night the winner will probably be fairly obvious or we will be looking at a really close race.
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By Kasson

Special Thanks to RealClearPolitics.com for the map generator.

 

 

This is our 2012 election prediction. If Barack Obama has a good night he might also pick up Virginia and Florida. If Mitt Romney has a good night he will pick up Ohio and Colorado, giving him just enough (275-263) to win the election.

The prediction for the Senate is Democrats (and Democrat siding independents)  will hold 53 seats. Republicans will hold 47.

We predict the Republican party to hold a healthy margin in the House of Representatives. Republicans holding 239 seats, Democrats holding 196 seats.

We will see tomorrow night how closely these predictions hold.

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