Last Tuesday before the elections I predicted the outcomes. I am happy to report that my predictions were pretty spot on. Logically, this makes me the Nostradamus of predicting elections. I truly believe I have the same prediction power as the man who started rocking this world 450 years ago (and will again in another 450). But back to my predictions:
Here was my prediction:
And here was the outcome:
The difference? Indiana. Those 11 electoral votes account for the difference between my prediction of Obama having 354 and him having his actual 365 electoral votes. I even called NE-02 and North Carolina. I didn’t fall for the suggestions that Arizona, North Dakota, or Montana could flip and had a very respectible result.
On the other hand I was off a little in the Congressional races. There are still 3 Senate races yet to be decided. I predicted:
Inds: 2 (siding with the Democrats)
the race currently sits at:
Inds: 2 (siding with Democrats)
I predict that while the Democrat is trailing in all three races (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota), that one will go to the Democrats. According to FiveThirtyEight.com Minnesota could very well go towards Franken and the Democrats. I find it difficult to believe that Ted Stevens will lose his lead in Alaska, and Georgia was favoring the Republican by 3 points. The runoff election there though is more about who can get out the vote better. Turn out will be much lower than the presidential race, its about who can more successfully get their voters to go back to the polls. I give the advantage there to Chambliss and the Republicans. Which would then result in me correctly predicting the Senate split.
On to the House race. I predicted:
and the actual outcome is:
With 6 yet undecided. I doubt all 6 will go Democrat and it will be closer to a 3-3 split or a 4-2 split leaning Republican. So I was off by probably 3 or 4 votes there.
As a whole the predictions turned out well. I now feel safe in my abilities to predict that the world as we know it will NOT end in 2012 as predicted.