Last Tuesday before the elections I predicted the outcomes.  I am happy to report that my predictions were pretty spot on.  Logically, this makes me the Nostradamus of predicting elections.  I truly believe I have the same prediction power as the man who started rocking this world 450 years ago (and will again in another 450). But back to my predictions:

Here was my prediction:

And here was the outcome:

The difference?  Indiana.  Those 11 electoral votes account for the difference between my prediction of Obama having 354 and him having his actual 365 electoral votes.  I even called NE-02 and North Carolina.  I didn’t fall for the suggestions that Arizona, North Dakota, or Montana could flip and had a very respectible result.

On the other hand I was off a little in the Congressional races.  There are still 3 Senate races yet to be decided.  I predicted:

Dems: 56

Reps: 42

Inds: 2 (siding with the Democrats)

the race currently sits at:

Dems: 55

Reps: 40

Inds: 2 (siding with Democrats)

I predict that while the Democrat is trailing in all three races (Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota), that one will go to the Democrats.  According to FiveThirtyEight.com Minnesota could very well go towards Franken and the Democrats.  I find it difficult to believe that Ted Stevens will lose his lead in Alaska, and Georgia was favoring the Republican by 3 points.  The runoff election there though is more about who can get out the vote better.  Turn out will be much lower than the presidential race, its about who can more successfully get their voters to go back to the polls.  I give the advantage there to Chambliss and the Republicans.  Which would then result in me correctly predicting the Senate split.

 

On to the House race. I predicted:

Dems: 261

Reps: 174

and the actual outcome is:

Dems: 255

Reps: 174

With 6 yet undecided.  I doubt all 6 will go Democrat and it will be closer to a 3-3 split or a 4-2 split leaning Republican.  So I was off by probably 3 or 4 votes there.

As a whole the predictions turned out well.  I now feel safe in my abilities to predict that the world as we know it will NOT end in 2012 as predicted.

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When writers for a television show begin to run out of plot lines, they sometimes become desperate for ideas that will hold the attention of viewers. This happens to almost every show eventually. When the writers use some of these weird or contrived ideas, the show is said to have ‘jumped the shark’.

The phrase ‘jumping the shark’ is taken from the TV show ‘Happy Days’.  In one episode, Fonzie literally jumps over a shark on water skis. (For those of you born after 1979, Happy Days was a 1970’s TV show that was set between 1957 & 1962.  Fonzie was a leather-clad biker who, in a few episodes, jumped over various objects on his motorcycle. We swear, this was a VERY POPULAR show.)

The most common TV version of ‘jumping the shark’ is when one of the main characters becomes pregnant or gets married. Anything, anything to breathe new life into the series.

John McCain is a serious man with serious ideas. On occasion he has been willing to take on his party or president. When did the bell toll for him? When did his campaign ‘jump the shark’? 

When he chose as his running mate, an attractive moose-shooting Governor of Alaska.

At the time of the decision his poll numbers were comparable to Obama’s. One can only assume he really feared he had no more ‘juice’ to win additional voters. He obviously felt his numbers were slipping, and people were starting to believe in the charismatic Obama. The McCain campaign needed new life. Right?

Desperate action was needed! 

With a long life of national public service, John McCain must personally know hundreds of capable Republicans. So who did he select? A person he met one time, and talked with on the phone one other time. The vetting process took approximately 2 ½ hours.

We know for sure he was drawn to the part of her act that says she “took on” big oil in Alaska when, in fact, she is pro big-oil. This allowed him to call her a ‘maverick’ too!  And did you notice how attractive she is? And a female at that!!  Win-win-win!

Maybe using lobbyists as advisors is not the best idea. (See our previous article, “The Incredible Shrinking McCain”)

We are guessing when he chose her, he thought she could name all three countries in North America. He probably assumed she had been governor too short a period of time to be charged with any sort of unethical behavior.

Eventually, her lack of gravitas was sure to surface. And the ethics violations. Happily, these occurred before the election. Republican insider revelations of her ‘diva’ behavior did not surface until after the election.

A more conventional pick, even a boring old white male, would have given Senator McCain a better chance. At least a fighting chance.

Don’t blame “Sexy Sarah” for the loss. She performed her “hot-looking bomb-thrower” role to perfection.

It was McCain who chose her, and McCain who paid the price.

The pizzazz she gave to the campaign was sure fun while it lasted though, wasn’t it?

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With the work of one little Civil War, what began as slavery was reduced all the way down to systematic racism.

Which is pretty much where we have been since the Civil War.  

Light a small candle in memory of those who suffered through these two stages of life in America. To those who fought the good fight but did not live long enough to see the fruits of their efforts.

The tide has turned. A truly historic election has changed everything. A man of color has been elected President of these United States.

Racism is now dead!  Really!  Except for all the remaining racist people.

But now is not the time for that topic. Now is the time to rejoice. To join hands for the advancement of the American Dream.

Let ALL children know the door is now open.

I have never experienced any occasion, not even Christmas as a kid, that made me feel as good as this election.

Hallelujah, let the bells ring.

 

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This election has been one of the biggest elections in U.S. history. President-elect Obama managed to take Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, as well as Virginia and even losing by a relatively small margin in Texas. One of the biggest shocks to me, though, was Nebraska’s second district. With 9,000 absentee and early votes left to count, Obama is only 500 or so votes behind. If he wins the second district, it will be the first time that a Nebraska district has gone to a Democrat in over forty years. I am not alone in wishing Obama this one extra electoral vote.

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Congratulations to President-Elect John McCain. He has run an honorable campaign throughout this historical election. Barack Obama was truly a horrible choice for Democratic nominee. Dennis Kucinich would have easily beaten McCain (because he has a hot wife, too). Obama is taking the loss rather poorly. Apparently he is demanding a recount in California, New York, and Illinois. He is claiming that there was voter fraud in those three key states, as well as several others. He neglected to mention that Donald Duck, Goofy, and Mickey Mouse all voted for him three times in Chicago, and twice each throughout Ohio and Michigan. I am happy to see that his relationship with known terrorist Bill Ayers came into light, also this photo.

And this one.

And this one.

I am glad to see that America has picked the better candidate. He plans to get our economy rolling by eliminating taxes for the rich, because we all know they desperately need to keep five houses and three yachts in a crisis like this. He is also very smart when it comes to balancing the budget, planning to reduce military benefits like health care and the pesky cost of “PTSD” complainers. Another big budget cut is education, smart move. Why think about our future if the economy is bad now? And I know that McCain will lead us strongly through whatever crises we may face, because I have not yet mentioned that he faced a crisis while deployed in Vietnam. If you haven’t yet heard, he was a Prisoner of War that spent time in a Viet Cong Prisoner of War camp as a Prisoner of War, and he was way more deserving of his Purple Heart than that crazy liberal John Kerry. Did I mention McCain was a POW?

Sarah Palin is hard at work already as well. Two and a half months before she is officially VP she already has issued binoculars to the Alaskan Independence Party to make sure no Russians are hopping across the Bering Strait. Eventually, with the help of her husband, she plans to make Alaska its own nation, and I’m sure we all support her goal.

In celebration of this major victory, Dick Cheney fired a shotgun shell into the air and accidentally shot a quail in the face.

After finding out about the victory, current President George Bush gave John McCain a great big hug.

But I digress, we Americans will enjoy the next four years, just have we have enjoyed the prosperity of the last eight.

Once again, CONGRATULATIONS JOHN McCAIN FOR BEING ELECTED THE 44TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

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11:23 CST: Kasson:  Wow what a great speech by Obama.

10:56 CST: Kasson:  Even better if it was Tancredo

10:32 CST: Cessna: McCain’s speech was definitely a great one. It is truly a shame that he had to be the Republican candidate in this election. I would have felt better had it been Huckabee or Romney.

10:12 CST: Cessna: I am proud to say I was a part of this, I canvassed for Barack in Iowa and Nebraska, and I enjoyed every minute of it. Even when those to UP trains tried to slow us down.

10:04 CST: Ike: It is now official. Senator Barack Obama is officially the next President of the United States.

10:02 CST: Kasson: CNN now projects victory for Obama.

9:50 CST: Cessna: Check out WGN, I love looking at the Barack party in Chicago.

9:36 CST: Cessna: Obama currently leads 207-135 on MSNBC, 207-135 on CNN, and its apparently a dead heat according to FOX News at 0-0. This may be the only time I ever say this, but I prefer FOX News in this instance.

9:31 CST: Kasson: The senate race is interesting in Minnesota between Franken and Coleman.  So far Franken is up, but neither has 50% of the vote.

9:09 CST: Cessna: McCain is up in Nebraska by 1%, how much money do you want to bet that only 3 cities are currently reporting?

9:00 CST: Kasson: Time for some real news, Indecision 2008.

8:39 CST: Cessna: Obama is only up by 1% in popular vote and is (projected) up 110 electoral votes. Something might be wrong with the electoral college.

8:34 CST: Ike: At this rate, McCain might not even win 211.

8:30 CST: Kasson: I had a dream McCain won 411 electoral votes. I’m glad that wont happen.

8:19 CST: Kasson: Ohio goes to Obama. As you have heard 30 times now, no Republican has won without Ohio.

8:06 CST: Ike: The Senate has officially gone Democrat, with the latest count at 51-33. This will be the third year in a row that the U.S. has a Democratic Senate!

8:04 CST: Kasson: Hey I’m back and ready to catch up.

8:00 CST: Ike: McCain has picked up two more states, Wyoming and North Dakota, giving him a shocking jump of 6 electoral votes.

7:36 CST: Wink: Current election tally is 103-58 electoral votes in Obama’s favor. MSNBC has called Georgia for McCain. On that subject, McCain has been quoted saying, “That’s just peachy.”

7:01 CST: Wink: The newest tally is 77-34 in Obama’s favor. This is without California, mind you, but does include the majority of New England.

6:54 CST: Ike: As poor as things are going for him right now, Obama should be able to count on some electoral votes from his home states of Hawaii and Illinois, but probably will not pick up any votes in his home states of Kansas and Kenya.

6:47 CST: Wink: Electoral vote is 16-3 in McCain’s favor. If only Vermont votes for Obama, this could be the biggest upset in U.S. history!

6:30 CST: Ike: Early in Florida, Obama has a lead on McCain. However, the older people are still trying to get to the booth, so take this with a grain of salt.

6:02 CST: Ike: Senator McCain has jumped out to an early 8-3 lead in electoral votes. An upset in the making?

5:36 CST: Kasson: I will have to leave you with Ike and Wink for the next couple hours, as I have to go.

5:28 CST: Kasson: Welcome to the Winkest Link Liveblog of the action

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These are my predictions for the outcome of tonights election:

Obama – 354

McCain – 184

We’ll se how I did tomorrow.

My prediction for the Senate is this:

Democrats – 56

Republicans – 42

Independents – 2 (siding with Democrats)

And for the house:

Democrats – 261

Republicans – 174

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The American political spectrum is an endless pendulum, steadily swinging back and forth from left to right, and back again. The swings usually follow a few election cycles. Why ‘only’ a few election cycles?

Hubris.

You get in office, your party takes control. You get re-elected a few times and you begin to think YOU are bigger than the office.

Hubris. 

Controlling Congress is fun while it lasts. You get all your pet projects approved. You get to jerk around all those smug (liberals/conservatives), and they just have to sit there and TAKE IT. The power-rush is exhilarating.

Just ask Newt Gingrich.

Newt is a fairly smart man who thinks he is supremely intellectual. (Now THAT is hubris.) I will not list here the many character flaws that completely destroy his morally superior posturing. Suffice it to say he hasn’t always been the perfect spouse.

The Gingrich-led Republicans turned the Congress upside-down in 1994.

Democrats had run the House & Senate a long time. Many members felt ‘entitled’ to their seats and did not take the challenge seriously. This hubris allowed Republicans to say “Congress is not listening to you and does not share your values”.

Frankly, the Dems deserved the thumping they got. They needed to review their REAL purpose for wanting to lead, and find a better way to deliver that message to the people. (In the animal world this is called ‘licking your wounds’.)

So, the ‘new breed’ Republicans took control with their “Contract with America”. This contract, which every Republican congressman signed, promised to clean up congress with a series of reforms.

Republicans hated how long the Dems controlled Congress, and felt the long tenures led to corruption, so one reform was a promise to limit terms to 6 years.

Not a single one stepped down after six years, essentially proving that power can indeed corrupt. Republicans fell into the trap.

Hubris.

The Bush election in 2000 gave the GOP control of the House, Senate & White House.  BONUS: An extremely conservative Supreme Court.

Democrats were virtually powerless to stop what happened next…

–         Huge tax breaks for the most wealthy,

–         A war with a country that did not attack us

–         So much money spent on pork projects that it made traditional liberals blush

–         Spying on U.S. citizens (under the guise of ‘protecting’ us).

–         Pushing thru a Medicare-drug program that wouldn’t allow Medicare to negotiate for the best drug prices, which…

–         Guaranteed the highest imaginable drug costs be dumped right onto the taxpayer.

–         To rebuild Iraq, giving friendly ‘no-bid’ contracts to corporations who are buddies of the top White House hierarchy.

–         Etc, etc, etc (this list is virtually endless)

Eventually you will need help from people on the other side of the aisle. This is much harder to get if you have been jerking them around for years. Getting kicked in the teeth makes one reluctant to cooperate. Eventually the public gets tired of your posturing and/or the disastrous consequences of unchecked power.

Republicans relinquished their majority, by a very small margin, in 2006.  This year the Democratic majority will be made huge, as the Republicans reap the full vengeance of what they have sewn.

And then the pendulum swings back……

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We have photographic proof that FDR met with Stalin and Nixon met with Mao. Two murderous communists!  Good thing that both FDR & Nixon are dead, or we would feel obligated to destroy their reputations.

J Edgar Hoover called Martin Luther King a “terrorist”.

All other details being identical, how close would this presidential race be if both candidates were white? (Hint: Not close)

The apartheid government in South Africa called Nelson Mandela a “terrorist”.

Undeniably, Keith Olbermann delivers a left-leaning perspective on current events. His “Countdown” show differs from Fox ‘News’ programming in two ways: (a) his show is actually funny and (b) he doesn’t have to lie to make his points.

King George III called our nation’s Founding Fathers “terrorists”.

 

Winning campaign slogan: “America is Good, America is Great, America is Wonderful”.

Losing campaign slogan: “America is Great, but can be improved”

 

How did ‘liberal’ become a swear word? Does Rush get ALL the credit for that?

We will admit that those on the far left are ‘crazies’ if you will admit those on the far right are ‘crazies’.  Which crazies, right or left, are scarier?

Tolerance, many theocrats say, is a vice! 

 

The British called Gandhi a “terrorist”.

To consolidate power, dictators will try to scare the populous, often through the use of the word “terrorist”.  Where have I heard this before?

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So last night Barack Obama aired his 30 minute “infomercial” making one last case to vote for him.  Personally I was worried that this might draw criticism.  The most attackable thing I saw was Obama sitting in a ‘rustic’ Oval Office.

Obama's Oval Office

But I think Obama and his campaign were trying to make lots of subtle hints that Obama is ready.  And that scene is one way to make him look like he belongs in the oval office.  The message was all positive and optimistic. His goal was to block off any potential run by McCain and I think he did.  There are so many other factors that affect the polls in the days leading up to the election that it will be difficult to definitively say how much this helped him.  

Down the road will this be a “defining moment?”

No.

Will this help shore up the victory?

Yes.

After tonight I think Obama can go sit in a room and wait this one out and still be able to pick up the win.  McCain Desparately needs Obama to do something stupid, dig up some deep cutting info, or make up something that sticks.

I dont think any of that is going to happen in  the next five days (this has been both the fastest and the slowest year/month/week in my life).  McCain is currently trying to tie Obama to a Columbia professor, Rashid Khalidi. This is a weak tie, even if they were best friends, the “dirt” is pretty clean.  I guess while I can see why his positions are unpopular, and unfavorable to the Jewish population.  I don’t see, while I dont hold the same views, why a person couldn’t hold those views.

Also ABC reports that McCain’s International Republican Institute, that he is chairman of, helped fund Khalidi’s Center for Palestine Research and Studies.

So if this is all they’ve got left it’s obvious they have nothing left to throw at Obama. Obama just needs to ride the status quo to next Tuesday.

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